Sunday, March 29, 2009

Insert Tiltle Here :)



OK, anyone got any ideas what this means? Note how unemployment (or at least time to get re-employed) drops like a rock, and then bam! Recession.

Um, why is this?

5 comments:

TAO March 29, 2009 at 8:36 AM  

Economics is all about cycles and employment is a lagging indicator.

The cycles of economic systems is quite obvious in the graph, and quite regular.

What is interesting is that with every cycle it is taking longer and longer for people to gain employment once they lose their jobs.

It appears that even in the best of times recently we have doubled the length of time someone is unemployed. (7.5 weeks in 1969 vs 12.5 weeks in 1990).

That is probably due to the continual globalization and lack of manufacturing jobs created with every economic growth period

OpenMindedRepublican March 29, 2009 at 8:49 AM  

No other economic indicator follows the recessions as blatantly as this.

You can't even find the recessions looking at GDP,personal income, not even the personal savings rate.

Contrast with this : http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?s[1][id]=PSAVE

TAO March 29, 2009 at 9:21 AM  

The savings rate is somehow related to supply side economics and again, while the total dollars have remained the same I bet the fluactions is due to a shift from type of savings and the shift from nation wide savings rate to upper class savings rate.

Middle class and working class savings were traditionally in savings accounts and CD's while we have seen a shift from 'savings' to 'investments' as savings.

Matt March 29, 2009 at 1:13 PM  

My read on the graph is that it gets easier and easier to get a job in a strong economy. It's not so much that "unemployment drops like a rock - and then bam!" as much as "getting a job gets easier and easier, until a recession hits". Looking at nothing else, I'd guess that these data show that recessions make it really hard to get a job.

Any chance you can link to the original source? (I presume it's from that whitehouse.gov survey you posted about earlier.) I have a lot of questions about this graph: does it include, for example, people who get laid off during a recession and choose to go back to school? (And since these are mean statistics, what's the standard deviation?)

OpenMindedRepublican March 29, 2009 at 1:20 PM  

Matt - All of these are from the Federal Reserve Economic Data, as the dang white house one was just getting too annoying to transfer into excel.

There is more raw data at the FRED than I will ever be able to wade through, good fun!

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